Preparing for Peak 2026

So, what’s actually changed in the last few years?

First things first, Peak starts earlier and earlier every year and drags on longer than you’d like. You’ve got brands kicking off offers weeks before Black Friday with customers spreading spend across the year and mini peaks popping up around Amazon Prime events and social drops.

What that means in reality is that there’s not one single pressure point. It’s constant and you don’t get a clean run-up and a clean finish, you get sustained demand. When that happens, the cracks in your operations won’t wait until November. They’ll show up in September and or even earlier.

Secondly, fulfilment has properly become a bit of a battleground. Customers don’t necessarily compare you to competitor brands of your size anymore. They compare you to Amazon* and the reality is, that’s the bar now! So that means fast, reliable service with no dramas and what’s more, your customers don’t care how hard it is behind the scenes. If it doesn’t arrive on time or stock’s wrong or comms are off, then that’s on you.

Thirdly, there’s less room for error. Costs are up across the board (especially now with the squeeze from the De Minimis removal), margins are tighter and you can’t just throw bodies at the problem anymore. Everyone’s trying to do more with less.  Which means Peak is less about throwing everything at growth and more about staying in control.

What brands are worried about for Peak 2026

This is the bit people don’t always say out loud even with the tightest forecasting. It’s not just “how big will we go?” It’s:

• Have we bought the right amount of stock?
• Can we actually fulfil what we’re about to sell?
• What happens if demand doesn’t behave like last year?
• Are we about to knacker our margins chasing volumes?

Because forecasting right now is not straightforward. Customers are more unpredictable, promotions are spread out and channels are all pulling in different directions. So if you get it wrong then you either run out of stock or you’re sat on stock you can’t shift without discounting it into the ground and neither’s a happy place to be in.

Demand forecasting is not your best guess

If I’m being blunt, the old way of doing forecasts such as looking at what we did last year and adding 10% on top, it doesn’t cut it. You need a proper view of what’s happening right now, across every channel and with the ability to adjust quickly.

The smarter brands are pulling everything together such as sales data, marketing plans, even external stuff like trends and constantly updating the plan as they go. It’s less about being right up front and more about staying right as things change. The reality is that it’s a shift in mindset that a lot of businesses are still catching up with.

Stock allocation – where things are going wrong

This is the one that wears people down without them realising. It’s not just about having enough stock but about having it in the right place and we hear about it all the time. If stock is sat in one location while another channel is overselling or your warehouse space is clogged up with slow movers while bestsellers are flying, it’s a big problem during Peak that will be amplified because volumes and small inefficiencies turn into big ones really quickly. So having real-time visibility across all your channels and locations, means you can make decisions before it becomes a problem.

The big question is… when should you outsource fulfilment or switch 3PL?

This comes up a lot and I’ll give you the honest answer, and that is most businesses leave it until it’s too late. You’ll know it’s time when fulfilment stops being something you manage in the background and starts dictating how the business runs. Orders creeping up is fine and that’s a good problem to have but when packing boxes is actually eating into your time you should be spending on growing the business, that’s when it’s madness and needs addressing.

Then if you add on managing multiple sales channels, issues with warehouse space, rising customer expectations and it’s just messy and stressful.  Sadly, it will impact you, your staff and your customers all at once.

Now, if you’re thinking about Peak 2026 specifically, you can’t be making that move last minute. Realistically, you want to be getting this sorted early and by the start of Q3 at the VERY latest because a proper transition takes time. You’ve got to clean your data, integrate systems, move stock without and get processes dialled in, all while maintaining the status quo. There’s usually a soft launch period as well, just to make sure nothing’s wobbling before things ramp up. No question, try and rush that and you’ll feel it in Peak.

What good actually looks like going into Peak now

It’s not flashy and to be honest, it’s really about control. You know your numbers and you trust your stock data. Your systems talk to each other and your fulfilment can handle volumes without falling over. Basically, you’ve stress-tested things before it gets busy and when you see the demand spikes – because it will – you’re not scrambling anymore. You’re just getting on with things without the stress.

Timing-wise, here’s how I think about it

About 90 days out, you should really have your ducks in a row. Forecasts locked (with some room to flex), stock coming in, operations lined up.

Prime Day-type events are useful and not just for revenue but for testing. They show you where you’re going to struggle before the real pressure hits. Black Friday is still the big one, but it’s no longer the only one. December rolls straight on from it and the expectations don’t drop. Throw social into the mix TikTok Lives, influencer pushes and you’ve got demand spikes happening left, right and centre.

The reality is, planning can’t just be one big moment these days. It’s got to be layered and if last Peak felt a bit too close to the edge last year, that’s probably your signal and right now’s the chance to sort it.

Let’s talk about your Peak fulfilment strategy

To find out more at how all this works at ILG, take a closer look at our order fulfilment services today, or get in touch with our team to discuss your specifics.

*Modernretail.co.uk